Why 2011 will decide the 'winners' and 'losers' in mobile

I'll just come out and say it: 2011 will probably be the most important year in the history of mobile devices (smartphones and tablets). Let's run down the list of why:

• Verizon iPhone : The largest carrier in the US gets the most popular phone in the world. Once this happens, Apple will have few remaining places to expand but will get ~100 million potential new customers. 
• Gingerbread and beyond : Android is closing the gap in UI thanks to Matias Duarte (interview with Engadget from CES). In addition, OEMs continue to push the limit of hardware with larger screens, 4G radios, and dual-core processors. 
• Palm is back : HP and Palm are set to announce a wide array of new devices in early February. People have been clamoring for over a year for new hardware from Palm, and they are finally ready to deliver now that they are flush with HP's cash. 
• Microsoft is alive : Despite a slow start, WP7 mixes the best of Android (many form factors) with the best of iOS (unified UI experience across all devices). Plus, Microsoft has the cash to make WP7 work.
• RIM wakes up : The Playbook is a step in the right direction - towards consumers and away from business. Now, they just need to start pushing phones with the new QNX OS. If they don't act soon, many of their users will jump ship.
• Nokia's last chance : The European giant has been floundering in the high-end market for years. Now is time for them to put out or shut up. Losing means being regulated to the low-end (and low-profitability) market. 
• The tablet is cometh : I was wrong -- I didn't think the iPad would be a big success outside the nerd rings. But with tablets coming from every side (Android, webOS, QNX), expect to see them become the new netbook. 

In addition, the smartphone market as a whole is set to explode in 2011. Android alone is activating 300k devices per day and it is not hard to imagine that number reaching 500k or more by this time next year. Add in Apple, Palm, and all the other manufacturers and it is not unreasonable to imagine north of 1 million smartphones being activated around the world ever day. Toss in tablets and PMPs like the iPod Touch and we could be there sooner than anyone thinks.