Rapid Reactions: iPhone 4S

Note: Rapid Reactions is a new series of posts I will try to do with a consistent format that presents the basic facts, my initial opinions, and some questions for the future of various tech announcements. Please let me know in the comments how you like the style of the post!

The Facts:

• Apple today announced the new CDMA/GSM iPhone 4S starting at $199, with the old iPhone 4 and 3GS now costing $99 and free (on 2 year contract) respectfully. 
• New hardware features include an A5 processor and improved camera.
• Software improvements are headed by Android-style notifications, Twitter integration, and Siri voice action software.
• Available Oct. 14 on AT&T, Sprint, and Verizon in the US & around the world.
• No significant hardware design changes, contrary to rumors. 

Initial Reaction:

What is Apple thinking? During a time of 4+ inch, LTE-equipped Android phones, Apple seems to be playing catch-up, especially in software. By and large, nearly every new feature in iOS from this and last year's update seems to be features Android has had for years. Unified notifications, desktop folders, custom backgrounds, fast-app switching, voice commands, etc. Even iCloud is merely a collection of services that have been available on other platforms and from other companies for months, and in some cases, years. Sure, no one has put them all under one hood until now, but that is really the only part of the service that Apple can claim to be leaders on.

I really wanted Apple to come out with some insane new hardware and make major changes to their software to move past the "gird of icons on a screen" UI layout to force innovation from their competitors, but it looks like Tim Cook and company had no such plans. The problem for Apple is that if they only want to release a new iPhone once a year, they need to make sure that it will be competitive for an entire year following it's release. And, for the first time, I can't say that the 4S will be competitive in 9 months.

Just look at this comparison chart whipped up by Engadget and you will see a lot more green (indicating "best" in that particular category) under the Droid Bionic than under the iPhone 4S, and anyone who is a fan of iOS should see that as a huge problem. Yes, hardware isn't everything, but there was a time that Apple had unquestionably the best hardware and software in the smartphone industry, and I don't think you could argue that with the same vigor today. 

Yesterday, Samsung, HTC, Motorola, Nokia, and everyone else were playing catch-up to Apple and the iPhone. Today, they may no longer have to.

Questions moving forward:

• Will Apple release an "iPhone 5" early next year or will we wait another year?
• How many Sprint customers will flock to the phone? And will it be enough to "save" the carrier from the much larger AT&T and Verizon?
• What new hardware and software improvements will we see when the Nexus Prime and Ice Cream Sandwich are (likely) announced next week?
• Will WP7 really start being competitive this fall? And what effect would that have on iOS and Android?
• If Apple waits another year to add LTE to the iPhone, how will consumers react in the meantime?
• And most importantly, is today the day we will look back on as the beginning of the decline of the iPhone as the "Jesus phone" brand?

Why I love Android

Look, all these arguments over "open" versus "closed" and "polish" versus "customization" are, quite frankly, all bull shit. The only question you as either a first-time smartphone buyer or someone considering jumping platforms should consider is this one: On which platform will my needs be met and will I be most productive and happy?

For me, the choice is Android. For you, maybe it is iOS, or BlackBerry OS, or even Windows Phone 7. Heck, you might be a-OK with that RAZR you have had since 2005. As long as it suites your needs and makes you happy, don't listen to all this chatter from the fanboys and tech elite trying to convince you that one company or another is "good" or "evil." They have their heads too far up in the clouds to see that not everyone down below agrees with their opinion. Shocking, I know, but some people actually have different likes and interests!

Personally, I like flexibility. I like tinkering. I like making things do stuff that they probably shouldn't be doing. And, probably most of all, I don't like wasting time. I hate going through a million menus to find the button to turn off my WiFi (iOS and to a lesser extent Windows, that's looking at you). I hate being told my desktop or home screen must look a certain way. I cannot stand being told I can't do something on a device I purchased because it might "confuse" other users. Android lets me have complete control over my device and I love it.

With widgets (as shown in my super easy-to-get screen capture from my Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1), I can access the information I used most often - what is the time, what is the weather, and what is my schedule - without opening a single app. In 2 seconds I have all the information I need 80% of the time. Sure, I probably trade some battery life and perhaps get occasional lag, but overall I save a ton of time and I am happier because of it. With my WiFi on/off widget, it is literally ONE CLICK to toggle my WiFi. And you can do that for nearly any system setting - mobile data, Bluetooth, GPS, brightness.

Those are the kinds of things that are important to me as a user. Not having the sleekest transitions or the most mind-blowingly creative UI. But hey, you might disagree. Good thing not one company (*cough*Apple*cough*) dominates the smartphone market anymore so there is real choice for consumer. You don't like widgets, guess what, buy something else. I promise I won't flame you for it.

Between the 'walled garden' of iOS and the 'fragmentation' of Android, competitors look for a middle ground

With Symbian all but dead and RIM loosing market share hand over fist, Apple's iOS and Google Android platforms look poised to become the dominate mobile operating systems for the near future. But the two companies have taken radically different approaches to the use of their software. Google has often described their mission as "creating the best version of Android we can and then giving it away" while Apple strictly controls every aspect of iOS. There are advantages and disadvantages to both, and neither solution is "perfect" for everyone. In fact, there is a gap between the strategies of the two companies that several competitors are already fighting to occupy.

Why 2011 will decide the 'winners' and 'losers' in mobile

I'll just come out and say it: 2011 will probably be the most important year in the history of mobile devices (smartphones and tablets). Let's run down the list of why:

• Verizon iPhone : The largest carrier in the US gets the most popular phone in the world. Once this happens, Apple will have few remaining places to expand but will get ~100 million potential new customers. 
• Gingerbread and beyond : Android is closing the gap in UI thanks to Matias Duarte (interview with Engadget from CES). In addition, OEMs continue to push the limit of hardware with larger screens, 4G radios, and dual-core processors. 
• Palm is back : HP and Palm are set to announce a wide array of new devices in early February. People have been clamoring for over a year for new hardware from Palm, and they are finally ready to deliver now that they are flush with HP's cash. 
• Microsoft is alive : Despite a slow start, WP7 mixes the best of Android (many form factors) with the best of iOS (unified UI experience across all devices). Plus, Microsoft has the cash to make WP7 work.
• RIM wakes up : The Playbook is a step in the right direction - towards consumers and away from business. Now, they just need to start pushing phones with the new QNX OS. If they don't act soon, many of their users will jump ship.
• Nokia's last chance : The European giant has been floundering in the high-end market for years. Now is time for them to put out or shut up. Losing means being regulated to the low-end (and low-profitability) market. 
• The tablet is cometh : I was wrong -- I didn't think the iPad would be a big success outside the nerd rings. But with tablets coming from every side (Android, webOS, QNX), expect to see them become the new netbook. 

In addition, the smartphone market as a whole is set to explode in 2011. Android alone is activating 300k devices per day and it is not hard to imagine that number reaching 500k or more by this time next year. Add in Apple, Palm, and all the other manufacturers and it is not unreasonable to imagine north of 1 million smartphones being activated around the world ever day. Toss in tablets and PMPs like the iPod Touch and we could be there sooner than anyone thinks.